DANCING WITH DRAGONS

SPECIAL EDITION: US-China War Risk Assessment (2025-2027)

By Giga Chan | May 24, 2025

SUPERPOWERS ON THIN ICE: WHAT HAPPENS WHEN DIPLOMACY FAILS AND MISSILES FLY?

Good morning, America (and our Canadian readers, sorry for always forgetting you exist)! Giga Chan here with your weekly dose of geopolitical reality that the mainstream media is too scared to publish.

So let's talk about the elephant – no, the dragon and eagle – in the room: the increasingly terrifying possibility of a US-China war. Both governments are out there claiming they "prefer peace" (don't we all?), but behind closed doors, they're frantically war-gaming scenarios that would make your apocalypse bunker investment look sensible.

WHO'S GOT THE BIGGER... NAVY?

China now boasts the world's largest fleet by ship count with over 370 vessels. That's right, folks – while America was busy making TikTok videos, China built enough ships to make a small floating continent. The Pentagon is desperately clinging to our qualitative edge, reminding everyone that our 11 nuclear carriers are WAY better than their 3 carriers. It's like comparing a Ferrari to a Toyota – except these Toyotas come with missiles.

Meanwhile, the Chinese air force keeps cranking out J-20 stealth fighters like they're fortune cookies. Our F-22/F-35 programs maintain technological superiority, but here's a fun fact: Chinese pilots don't need to be better when they can just launch hundreds of "carrier-killer" missiles at our ships from the safety of their mainland. Nothing says "democracy" like watching a $13 billion aircraft carrier sink because we couldn't build enough missile defenses.

NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE ANYONE?

Now here's where things get truly hilarious (in that dark, existential dread kind of way): America has approximately 3,708 nuclear warheads, with about 1,770 deployed. China has around 500 total, with only about 24 deployed.

This means if things go sideways – like REALLY sideways – we have enough nukes to turn the Earth into a cosmic barbecue approximately 7 times over instead of China's measly once. Isn't mutually assured destruction just the BEST deterrent? Nothing keeps the peace like knowing we can all die together!

ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE: THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING

If you thought COVID supply chain disruptions were bad, just wait for World War III! In 2024, America exported $143.5 billion to China while importing $438.9 billion – that's a $295 billion deficit keeping Walmart shelves stocked with affordable goods. China also holds about $784 billion in US Treasuries, which they might panic-sell in a conflict, potentially tanking our economy faster than a reality TV star can tweet.

In a hot war scenario, economists predict both nations would enter an economic death spiral. China's export-dependent economy would collapse without American consumers, while Americans would finally learn where literally everything they own comes from (spoiler: it's China). Global recession? Try global depression with a side of hyperinflation.

WHO'S GOT OUR BACK? ALLIANCE BREAKDOWN

If bullets start flying over Taiwan, Japan and South Korea would likely stand with America (they're already conducting joint military exercises that are totally "not provocative"). Australia would provide intelligence and possibly basing, while the Philippines would let us use their bases (after we sent them a bunch of shiny new military toys).

Europe and NATO would express "deep concern" – their specialty – and possibly send strongly worded letters before reluctantly backing sanctions. Russia might express solidarity with China but is too busy with Ukraine to join the party. Meanwhile, some Global South nations would call for restraint while quietly taking sides based on who they owe money to.

INVASION SCENARIO: TAIWAN EDITION

The most likely flashpoint? Taiwan declares independence and China responds by turning the island into a testing ground for its new missiles. Military analysts suggest China would use a combination of missile barrages, air strikes, submarine blockade, and amphibious assaults. The US would rush carriers to the area, possibly engaging Chinese ships and planes.

The outcome? Potentially catastrophic for all sides. Taiwan's economy (and semiconductor industry that powers your iPhone) would be decimated. China might "win" but face international isolation, while America would either "preserve balance" after massive casualties or face a credibility crisis with allies. Either way, stock markets worldwide would make 2008 look like a minor correction.

ACCIDENTAL WAR: WHEN "OOPS" MEANS MISSILES

Here's a terrifying thought: the Indo-Pacific is so crowded with US and Chinese forces that accidental war isn't a matter of if, but when. Imagine a US spy plane gets misidentified and shot down, or a Chinese Coast Guard vessel accidentally rams a US destroyer. Suddenly, everyone's launching missiles because no one wants to look weak.

Military experts call this "flash war" – which sounds like a cool superhero move but is actually just millions of people dying because someone made a mistake. The diplomatic aftermath would include lots of finger-pointing, emergency UN sessions, and markets crashing faster than your internet connection during a Zoom call.

THE BOTTOM LINE: NOBODY WINS

Here's the cold, hard truth, dear readers: In any direct US-China conflict, both powers emerge weakened. The "winner" would be whoever can force terms first, but those terms would involve massive concessions and economic devastation.

Experts still believe a full US-China war in the next 1-2 years remains "low probability" – but then again, these are the same experts who said inflation was "transitory." Both sides understand the stakes: nuclear arsenals, intertwined economies, and global order. But history shows that great powers often stumble into wars they never intended to fight.

So sleep tight, America! Your government is definitely prepared for this completely improbable scenario that would definitely never happen because humans are rational actors who never make mistakes.

Giga Chan is CanAmericanNews.com's chief international correspondent and author of the bestselling book "Apocalypse LOL: Finding Humor in the End Times."

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